Haryana Elections 2024: Haryana may slip out of the hands of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) this time. While different election opinion polls have predicted BJP to get an edge, there is a faction in political circles that is calling all those surveys wrong. Political analysts and experts of this camp believe that BJP is bound to lose in Haryana and it may lose ground there due to certain factors. It is claimed that the results of all the surveys that have come about Haryana so far may prove to be wrong. Since, the recent surveys were prepared in view of the year 2019 and since then the situation has changed a lot.Â
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BJP Faces Anti-Incumbency, Anger from Key Communities Ahead of Haryana Polls
Senior TV journalist Mazkoor Alam claimed that there are two major factors for BJP’s defeat. First – 10 years of anti-incumbency. According to him, “BJP’s vote share will fluctuate this time. It will depend on the seat and the candidate or it can fluctuate according to the caste equation. BJP is a victim of anti-incumbency and the voter wants change at any cost.” Mentioning the second important factor, he further said that four communities in Haryana are particularly angry with the BJP, which include wrestlers (over the Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh controversy), farmers (over various demands including MSP), youth (on the employment front) and soldiers (in the context of Agniveers regarding army recruitment).
Political Expert Predicts Key Factors That Could Sway Haryana Battle Between Congress and BJP
According to the political expert, “The real fight in Haryana is between Congress and BJP.” Based on the postmortem of the political situation from past to future, he also listed five important factors, which can directly lead to the defeat of BJP or victory of Congress in Haryana.Â
Will BJP Lose Haryana? Key Factors That Could Decide! Let’s know about them:
– Manohar Lal Khattar is considered infamous from the BJP side, while Nayab Singh Saini is not of the stature that a big leader from the BJP side should be. On the other hand, Congress has not declared a CM. Meanwhile, factionalism and factionalism in the Congress was also seen less this time. The party made every possible effort to convince the dissatisfied, due to which Congress will benefit overall. Â
– In the general elections of Haryana, BJP lost five out of 10 seats. Congress contested on nine seats but won on five. In such a situation, it is clear that its ratio is more than that of BJP. Whatever were the reasons for BJP’s defeat and Congress’ victory in the state, they are still there in the present time.
– In the year 2019, there was an issue like Pulwama in the country. Interestingly, BJP’s seats had come down from 47 to 40 then. There is speculation that the seats may reduce even more in this election. On top of that, BJP’s vote share is also falling continuously. It is feared that it will fall further in 2024. If there is a difference of 10% in the vote share of BJP and Congress, then it can be wiped out and it can be limited to only 10 to 15 seats.
– Earlier Manohar Lal Khattar was the CM of the BJP government in Haryana. Later Nayab Singh Saini was made the CM in his place. It is believed that by changing the CM in the state, the BJP has accepted that it is a victim of anti-incumbency. At present, everything is not right inside. The BJP also feels that it has not done anything for which the public will forgive it.
– The Brand Modi bet is not going to work in Haryana the way it was working earlier. Surveys conducted before the elections show that the popularity graph of the Leader of Opposition in Lok Sabha and Congress MP Rahul Gandhi has increased. Earlier, he was liked by 15% people for the post of PM, now he is the choice of 30% people in this matter, while Narendra Modi ‘s popularity as PM has fallen. Earlier he was the choice of 57% but in some recent surveys this figure has come down to 32%.Â
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