As far as the US President Donald Trump is concerned, if his latest assertions are to be believed, which might change tomorrow, the US’ war with Iran is over. In a virtual G-7 meeting, he categorically said that “Iran is about to surrender,” and added, “I got rid of a cancer that was threatening us all.” His social media post is more revealing, “We are totally destroying the terrorist regime of Iran, militarily, economically, and otherwise, yet, if you read the failing New York Times, you would incorrectly think that we are not winning. Iran’s Navy is gone, their Air Force is no longer, missiles, drones, and everything else are being decimated, and their leaders have been wiped from the face of the earth…. They have been killing innocent people… for 47 years, and now I, as the forty-seventh president of the United States of America, am killing them. What a great honour it is to do so.”
Operation Epic Fury, as Trump dubs it, has brought Iran to its knees, or rather at the knees of America. The US president does not like Iran’s new supreme religious leader, the son of the former one who was killed on the first day of the missile attacks. America feels that the son is “unacceptable.” There are experts who contend that the vast sections in Iran do not like the new leader, and want to be rid of any religious leader. The population will be happy if the US succeeds, as it will herald an open and liberal culture. Many of the leaders at the G-7 call left unconvinced, and felt that the US president was “ambiguous and non-committal.” He is unsure about either the objectives or the timelines. He never expected Iran to retaliate the way it did, and to do so for almost two weeks. He wanted the war to be over in days.
However, reports from the American media, and remember the way Trump dumped a leading newspaper in his social media post, indicate that the war is far from over. According to a foreign news agency, “US intelligence indicates that Iran’s leadership is still largely intact, and is not at the risk of collapse any time soon after nearly two weeks of relentless US and Israeli bombardment, according to three sources familiar with the matter. A ‘multitude’ of intelligence reports provide ‘consistent analysis that the regime is not in danger’ of collapse, and ‘retains control of the Iranian public,’ said one of the sources, all of whom were granted anonymity to discuss US intelligence findings.” The stark conclusion is that despite the claims of Trump, or other world leaders, an “acceptable end” is unlikely if the Iranian leaders remain entrenched, and the public stands behind them. World-over, Sunni and Shia populations have come together to oppose the US attacks.
Hence, for the war to end, America will need to manage a regime change in Iran. This will only escalate the war, and will dissuade some of the powerful allies in Europe and the Middle East. For a regime change, the US will need to send ground troops, and seek the support of the other militaries. According to a foreign agency quoted above, “Reuters reported last week that Iranian Kurdish militia based in neighbouring Iraq consulted with the US about how and whether to attack Iran’s security forces in the western part of the country. Such an incursion could put pressure on the Iranian security services there, allowing the Iranians to rise against the government. Abdullah Mohtadi, the head of the Komala Party of Iranian Kurdistan, part of six-party coalition of Iranian Kurdish parties, said in an interview… that the parties are highly organised inside Iran, and that ‘tens of thousands of young people are ready to take up arms’ against the (Iranian) Government if they receive (the) US support.”
But Trump does not want to make the situation messier by sending in ground troops. He has ruled out the involvement of the Kurds, as this will complicate the matter. His allies will not approve of sending troops. They are fine with air and missile attacks, but they will shudder at the thought of body-bags coming back home. Israel, however, will propel the US and other European nations to continue the war until the Iranian leadership capitulates and collapses. The Middle East nations are caught in a shambles. They truly face the Catch-22 situation. They may want the US to continue the attacks, and risk more attacks on their civilian and other targets, which will worsen the crisis. They may want the US to withdraw, but this will leave the Iran leadership intact, and possibly more confident because it defeated the mighty Americans.
What is more ironic is that a self-acclaimed ‘Man of Peace,’ who stopped several global wars, and thought he was the right and true recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize, has escalated a Middle East war into an almost-world war situation. He went in without realising what will happen if Iran fights back. Hence, he has no way of knowing how to get out. In the end, his allies are suffering the most, even as his part-friend, part-enemy, Russia, seems to be having fun. Some estimates contend that Russia’s revenues are up by $150 million a day.
