Assembly By-Elections in UP: Political activities have intensified regarding the by-elections to be held on 10 assembly seats in Uttar Pradesh. If BJP has failed to get majority on its own in the Lok Sabha elections, then Uttar Pradesh is believed to have played the biggest role in it.
Uttar Pradesh is the same state where BJP once dominated but in this Lok Sabha election, the same party slipped to the second position. With this, a period of review and contemplation started within the party. Somewhere, Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath came under fire for the poor performance of BJP in UP. At the same time, UP’s Deputy Chief Minister Keshav Prasad Maurya has also become very active.
It is believed that the OBC leaders within the BJP are quite worried. The results of the 18th Lok Sabha elections have increased the party’s concern about the OBC vote. A large part of OBC and Dalit voters have shifted from the BJP. In such a situation, the question arises whether the BJP will be able to win the by-elections to be held on 10 seats.Â
Table of Contents
In this report, let us know in detail what is the biggest litmus test for BJP in the by-elections of 10 assembly seats.Â
By-election is not easy for BJP
Out of the 10 seats in UP where by-elections are going to be held, 5 seats were occupied by the Samajwadi Party. The other five seats were with the Bharatiya Janata Party and its allies. This clearly means that this time the contest is going to be a close one. However, it cannot be ignored that the equations of these seats have changed after the Lok Sabha elections. Not only have the BJP’s seats decreased in Uttar Pradesh, but its vote share has also fallen to 41 percent.
Not only this, in the Lok Sabha elections, SC-ST and OBC voters also seemed to be separated from the Bharatiya Janata Party, after which it can be assumed that the by-elections are not going to be easy for the BJP.
Image of CM Yogi Adityanath
Ever since the results of the Lok Sabha elections, Yogi Adityanath is being targeted for the party’s poor performance in the state. In the last few months, Yogi Adityanath’s political opponents have become quite active. Opposition leaders have constantly targeted Yogi. Deputy CM Keshav Prasad Maurya himself has said that the organization is bigger than the government. Not only this, MLA Fateh Bahadur, MLA Sushil Singh and MLA Ramesh Chandra Mishra have raised questions on the administrative system.
Meanwhile, many such issues have also been in discussion in which the allies of the Bharatiya Janata Party have started raising their voice against the BJP. For example, take the rule of putting names on the carts and shops during the Kanwar Yatra.
The Supreme Court has currently stayed this rule, but the Yogi Adityanath government had ordered to implement this decision in the whole of UP. All opposition parties including SP, BSP had targeted this decision, and BJP’s allies had also objected to this order and demanded to withdraw it.
Apart from this, recently in the budget 2024 also no major announcement was made about UP this time. After which Samajwadi Party President Akhilesh Yadav fiercely cornered the Yogi government and the central government on the issue of unemployment. Akhilesh said that UP was not even mentioned in the budget, it seems that revenge is being taken for the defeat of BJP in the Lok Sabha elections.
In the last one and a half months, Keshav Prasad Maurya met BJP President JP Nadda on several different dates. These meetings are considered to be a threat to CM Yogi Adityanath’s chair. This issue was also raised by Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal during the Lok Sabha election campaign.
Kejriwal had said that if BJP wins this election, then get it written from me – these people will change the Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh within two months. They will end Yogi Adityanath’s politics, they will finish him off as well.
In such a situation, before the by-elections on these 10 seats, the biggest challenge for BJP will be to take all allies along. In the last few meetings, UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath has been trying to explain to the party workers and leadership in his own way that whatever has happened should be forgotten and preparations should be made for the future. The past cannot be changed, so preparations should be made for the upcoming elections.
Claims of Keshav Prasad Maurya
The turmoil in UP BJP since the results of the Lok Sabha elections is no longer a secret. The voice that has been most vocal against Yogi Adityanath is that of Deputy Chief Minister Keshav Prasad Maurya.
Now the opposition is trying to take advantage of this growing distance between CM Yogi Adityanath and Deputy CM Keshav Prasad Maurya. In fact, UP government minister Om Prakash Rajbhar met Deputy CM Keshav Prasad Maurya on Monday, whose pictures are going viral on social media, after which Samajwadi Party leader IP Singh took a dig at the BJP over this meeting and said that Keshav Prasad Maurya is now ready to take on CM Yogi Adityanath. Welcoming Keshav Prasad Maurya, he said that let’s see whether he leaves the BJP or CM Yogi is removed.
There is also a discussion in UP politics that Keshav Prasad Maurya can be strengthened against Yogi Adityanath. The way Maurya was vocal recently and then suddenly became silent has also strengthened these discussions. It is believed that there will be major changes in the state government and organization in the coming time, but those changes will also happen only after the assembly by-elections.
Which means that the by-elections to be held on 10 seats are being considered a big test for Yogi Adityanath . This is the reason why despite all the opposition, Yogi is busy in uniting the party and preparing to win 10 seats.Â
Equation of caste votes
1. Katehari- Yadavs and Dalits have a good influence on this seat of Purvanchal. This seat has fallen vacant after Samajwadi Party leader Lalji Verma won the Lok Sabha elections from Ambedkar Nagar. SP had won here in the year 2012 and BSP in the year 2017. At the same time, in the assembly elections held in the year 2022, SP defeated Nishad Party in a tough contest on this seat. In UP’s Katehari seat, Bahujan Samaj Party had spoiled the game of Nishad Party by getting 24 percent votes. This is a ‘strong’ seat of SP.
2. Karhal- Karhal seat comes under Mainpuri Lok Sabha and traditionally only Yadav families have won this seat. Bharatiya Janata Party has never won this seat in its electoral history.
The Karhal seat fell vacant after Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav resigned. Because Akhilesh had won from Kannauj in the 18th Lok Sabha elections. It is considered a very stronghold of the SP, as the SP has won this seat every time in the last three elections. In the 2022 assembly elections, Akhilesh won this seat by a huge margin of 67,500 votes.
3. Milkipur- After the resignation of Samajwadi Party leader Awadhesh Prasad, a by-election is going to be held on this seat. In the year 2012, Samajwadi Party won Milkipur and in the year 2017, Bharatiya Janata Party won. In the year 2022, Samajwadi Party regained the seat by defeating BJP with a victory margin of six percent in a tough contest. In that election, BSP spoiled BJP’s game by getting 7 percent votes. This is a ‘strong’ seat of Samajwadi Party. Brahmins and Dalits have good influence in it.
4. Meerapur- Jats and Muslims have a good influence on this seat. Meerapur seat has fallen vacant after RLD’s Chandan Chauhan was elected MP and resigned. SP-BSP won here in the year 2012. Whereas in the year 2017 BJP won here. In the last assembly elections i.e. in the year 2022, RLD won this seat by forming an alliance with SP.
5. Ghaziabad- Jats and Vaishyas have a good influence here. SP last won this seat in the year 2004. Before resigning, BJP leaders were MLAs here. Atul Garg won the Lok Sabha election from Ghaziabad after which this seat has become vacant. This seat was won by BSP in the year 2012 and BJP in the year 2017. At the same time, in the last assembly elections i.e. in the year 2022, the Bharatiya Janata Party retained the seat with a huge margin of more than 1 lakh votes. This is a ‘strong’ seat of BJP.
6. Majhawan- Majhawan is a strong seat of Bharatiya Janata Party. Yadavs, Mauryas, Nishads, Dalits, Brahmins have a good influence in it. The reason for the by-election here is Vinod Kumar Bind of Nishad Party winning the Lok Sabha elections from Bhadohi seat and resigning. Majhawan seat was won by Bahujan Samaj Party in the year 2012 and by Bharatiya Janata Party in the year 2017. In the year 2022, Nishad, an ally of Bharatiya Janata Party, won this seat by defeating Samajwadi Party.
7. Sisamau- Muslims, Brahmins, Dalits have a good influence here. This seat comes under Kanpur Lok Sabha. Sisamau seat of UP has fallen vacant after Samajwadi Party MLA Irfan Solanki was found guilty. This seat is considered a ‘very strong seat’ of Samajwadi Party because Samajwadi Party has won here in the last three assembly elections.
8. Khair- This is a ‘strong’ seat of BJP. Jats, Brahmins, Dalits and Muslims have a good influence in this. Currently, this assembly seat is vacant due to BJP’s Anoop Singh winning the Lok Sabha elections from Hathras. He resigned from Khair assembly seat of Aligarh after winning the Lok Sabha elections.
Here, RLD won the assembly elections in 2012 and BJP in 2017. In the year 2022, the Bharatiya Janata Party retained the seat by defeating the Bahujan Samaj Party with a comfortable victory margin of 30 percent in a close contest.
9. Phulpur- Yadavs and Dalits have a good influence on this seat. This seat was vacant after Praveen Patel was elected MP. In the year 2012, Samajwadi Party won this seat and in 2017 BJP won it. In the year 2022, Bharatiya Janata Party retained the seat by defeating SP with a victory margin of one percent in a tough contest. Yadavs and Dalits have a good influence here.
10. Kundarki- This is a very strong seat of the Samajwadi Party. SP has won here in 2012, 2017 and 2022. In 2022, SP retained the seat by defeating BJP by a victory margin of 16 percent.
The leaders of this caste are troubled
The leaders of Kurmi, Maurya, Rajbhar and Pasi community of Bharatiya Janata Party are looking worried. The result of Lok Sabha elections shows that this class of the state has distanced itself from BJP. This class was with Bharatiya Janata Party since 2014 and till 2022 i.e. the last assembly elections, it played an important role in BJP’s victory in a united manner.
But now this class is going away. The challenge before BJP and these leaders is how to bring this class back. BJP has called a meeting of the OBC department and has asked the leaders to connect their community with the party again. But this path is not so easy.
Reason for by-election on 10 assembly seats
The MLAs of Majhawan, Ghaziabad, Mirapur, Karhal, Phulpur, Kundarki, Katehari, Milkipur and Khair assembly seats of Uttar Pradesh resigned after winning the Lok Sabha elections . Due to which by-elections are to be held on these seats. On the other hand, MLA Irfan Solanki of Sisamau seat of Kanpur was sentenced to 7 years in a 2-year-old arson case, after which his assembly membership was cancelled.
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