By-Elections 2024: Along with the Jharkhand and Maharashtra assembly elections, by-elections are also to be held on 47 assembly seats in 13 states. Most of these seats have fallen vacant due to the MLAs being elected as MPs. These include 4 seats in Bihar, 10 in Uttar Pradesh and 6 in West Bengal. Full-time assembly elections are to be held in Bihar next year i.e. in 2025, while assembly elections will be held in West Bengal in 2026 and in Uttar Pradesh in 2027. BJP has been in a weak position in these states in the Lok Sabha elections. Therefore, the results of the assembly by-elections are being seen as semi-finals. The reputation of CM Yogi, Mamata Banerjee, Tejashwi Yadav and Prashant Kishore is at stake in these by-elections.
Table of Contents
The challenge of improving the results of the Lok Sabha elections
The importance of by-elections in Bihar, Bengal and Uttar Pradesh has increased because the BJP did not get the expected success in these states in the Lok Sabha elections. In Bengal, Mamata Banerjee-led TMC caused damage to the BJP, while in Uttar Pradesh it did so because of the India Block of opposition parties led by the Samajwadi Party.
In Bihar, the BJP lost five seats. JDU, which is part of the NDA, also lost four seats. The reason for the BJP’s poor condition in Uttar Pradesh was said to be the internal conflict in the party. CM Yogi Adityanath blamed the candidate selectors for this. He said that the work was done against his wishes in the selection of candidates.
The reason for the BJP lagging behind in Bengal was said to be Mamata Banerjee’s storm. The reason behind the BJP’s failure in Bihar was considered to be anti-incumbency against the Narendra Modi government. Therefore, if the NDA has to improve in the by-elections, then it will be necessary for the India Block to maintain the same tempo as in the Lok Sabha elections.
The power of Tejashwi and PK will be known in Bihar
In the meantime, Prashant Kishor‘s party Jan Suraj has emerged as the third political pole in Bihar apart from NDA and UPA. Prashant Kishor is confident of bringing change in Bihar. Tejashwi Yadav is putting all his might to remove Nitish Kumar from the CM’s chair. There is a reason for this.
In the last assembly elections, Tejashwi had single-handedly increased the number of MLAs of the opposition alliance to 110. Later, Tejashwi also made four MLAs of AIMIM a part of RJD. Tejashwi missed becoming the CM due to a shortfall of just eight MLAs from the figure of 122 required for majority.
CM Nitish Kumar is confident of his development work done in Bihar. Therefore, the by-elections being held on four seats for the three are no less than a semi-final
Tejashwi will have to save India Block’s seats
The by-elections have become a question of prestige for Tejashwi because three out of four seats were in India Block’s possession. Only one seat was with NDA. Despite the big mobilization of the opposition, RJD could not show any wonders in the Lok Sabha elections. Since issues and faces change in Lok Sabha and assembly elections, Tejashwi is hopeful that he will get better results than 2020 in the assembly elections to be held next year.
This can be gauged from the by-elections itself. The background for the success of the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan in the 2015 assembly elections was also prepared in the by-elections held before that. At that time, the Mahagathbandhan had captured most of the seats.
The results of the by-election will reveal Prashant Kishor’s strength
The atmosphere of change that Jan Suraj founder Prashant Kishor has created by walking in Bihar for two years will also be tested in this by-election. Prashant claims that people want change. People are fed up with the clichéd politics.
To change the politics of Bihar which has revolved around two faces like Lalu Yadav and Nitish Kumar, he has decided to field good and new faces. In this sequence, he has made retired army general SK Singh a candidate in the by-election and has also fielded new faces in other areas. However, doubts have arisen over SK Singh contesting the election.
It is being said that he is not a voter of Bihar. NDA and India Block are walking on the old path. If Prashant Kishor succeeds in his aim, it will be his big achievement. If he fails, the dream of Jan Suraj will be shattered.
UP CM Yogi will have to show his strength BJP gave free hand in UP
Talking about Uttar Pradesh, this time the central leadership of BJP has given them free hand in candidate selection. BJP has also tried their best to end the internal conflict. BJP has instructed those who are angry with Yogi to remain in control. If Yogi is able to give better results in the by-elections, then it will have to be accepted that the real reason for BJP’s poor condition in the Lok Sabha elections was the same as he had told.
In view of the assembly elections to be held in the year 2027, Yogi will have to improve his performance in the by-elections. Therefore, the by-elections are no less than an acid test for him. The tussle that is being seen in the Samajwadi Party-led India Block regarding ticket distribution can also make Yogi’s path easier. But, the real key is in the hands of the public.
TMC’s challenge to maintain victory in Bengal
In this year’s Lok Sabha elections, TMC had eroded BJP’s prepared ground by winning 29 seats in West Bengal. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, TMC had won 22 seats. This number reached 29 in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. BJP’s seats decreased from 18 in 2019 to 12 this time. People considered this as Mamata Banerjee’s storm.
BJP has the challenge of regaining its lost ground in Bengal. On the other hand, amidst the atmosphere created against many types of corruption and atrocities against women, Mamata Banerjee has to prove that this is a conspiracy of BJP against her.
Also read:
