Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh: “Operation Al-Aqsa Flood launched against Israel on October 7 was a blow that hit directly on the heart of the Jews. This war will continue until we liberate our land from the enemies.” Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh said this while giving a speech at the farewell ceremony of Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi in May. About 40 days after this statement, on 31 July 2024, at around 2 am, a guided missile attacked a building in Iran’s capital Tehran.
2 people die in this attack. By morning, the news spreads like a sensation first in Iran and then in the whole world that Hamas’s political chief Ismail Haniyeh and his bodyguard have been killed.
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The attack in Iran took place at Haniyeh’s hideout. He had gone to attend the swearing-in ceremony of Iran’s new President Masoud Pazshkian a day earlier, on July 30. Islamic Jihad leader Ziad al-Nakhla was also present in the same building where Haniyeh was staying. However, he did not even get a scratch in the attack. In such a situation, Israel is being accused of killing Haniyeh.
Haniyeh had met Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei a few hours before his death
Media reports have expressed apprehension that this could further increase tensions in the Middle East. From Iran’s President and Supreme Leader to terrorist organizations like Hezbollah and Houthis have also talked about taking revenge from Israel.
At the same time, the death of Haniyeh, who was playing an important role in mediating the 10-month-long war between Israel and Hamas, has raised many questions. Will Hamas become weak after Haniyeh? What effect will this have on the war between Israel and Hamas? Can Hamas take revenge for Haniyeh’s death from Israeli hostages?
ByNewsIndia tried to find answers to these questions by talking to the Foreign affairs experts-
1- Will Hamas end with the death of Hamas Chief Haniyeh?
To know the answer to this question, first we have to understand Hamas. There has been tension between Jews and Palestinians since Israel came into existence in 1948. Palestine Liberation Organization i.e. PLO was formed in the 1970s. It carried out many attacks on Israel. After a conflict that lasted for 2 decades, a peace agreement was signed between Israel and PLO.
Under this, the PLO promised to abandon the path of violence and extremism. However, a militant organization of Palestinians did not accept this agreement. The name of this organization was Hamas. It was founded in 1987 by cleric Sheikh Ahmed Yasin. Hamas can be divided into four parts.
Political Bureau : It takes all the political decisions related to Hamas. Ismail Haniyeh was the head of this bureau. This wing works to maintain Hamas’ relations with other countries and organizations. Apart from this, it plays an important role in deciding the organization’s plan of action regarding Gaza and West Bank.
Military wing: The name of Hamas’ military wing is Izz ad-Din al-Qasim Brigade. Mohammed Daif is its leader. This wing is responsible for all military operations of Hamas. The attack on Israel on 7 October was also carried out by the military wing.
Shura Council: This is a committee of Hamas’s key leaders, which monitors the Political Bureau and the military wing. It is responsible for advancing the organization’s ideology.
Social Organizations: Hamas also works with many social organizations. The goal of this wing is to provide better health and education facilities to Palestinians.
According to the Foreign affairs experts, that Ismail Haniyeh’s death was definitely a big blow to Hamas. But this cannot be the end of the organization. Ismail Haniyeh’s second tenure as a political leader was going to end soon. According to Hamas rules, any political leader can be elected to this post only twice. In such a situation, Haniyeh was going to step down from his post soon.
In the 37 years since the inception of Hamas, the organization has had many leaders. Apart from being a political party, it is a symbol of a movement. Israel Defense Force (IDF) spokesman Admiral Daniel Hagari had also said that Hamas is an ideology. It resides in the hearts of Palestinians. In such a situation, Haniyeh’s death will not end this organization. Before Haniyeh, Khalid Mashal was the political head of Hamas. He lives in Doha. After Haniyeh, he is the strongest contender for this post.
2- What will be the direction of the war after Haniyeh’s death?
According to the Foreign affairs experts, Yahya Sinwar leads Hamas in the Gaza Strip. The responsibility of the war lies with Hamas’ military wing Al-Qasim Brigade. It is led by Hamas commander Mohammad Daif. Haniyeh has responsibilities related to Hamas’ politics and diplomacy. In such a situation, there is very little hope of the direction of the war changing after his death.
After the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7 last year, the organization’s official Ali Barakeh told the news agency AP that only a few Hamas leaders had information about the attack. The attack was planned by about 6 Hamas commanders.
Ismail Haniyeh was in Turkey at the time of the attack on Israel. He saw the news of the attack on TV and then prayed. After the statement of the Hamas official, it was feared that Haniyeh also did not have the exact information about the Israeli attack.
3- What will be the impact on ceasefire efforts between Hamas and Israel?
According to the Foreign affairs experts, after Haniyeh’s death, there is a possibility of a negative impact on ceasefire talks. In fact, till now Haniyeh was leading Hamas in all the meetings for mediation.
Many countries like Qatar, Egypt and America were trying to reach a ceasefire agreement for months. But now Hamas’s chief negotiator has died. Israel has also been blamed for this. In such a situation, nothing can be said about when the discussion on the ceasefire agreement between the two parties will start again.
On the other hand, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has also been accused of not wanting a ceasefire to happen. In fact, there are many corruption cases going on against Netanyahu. The Israeli PM fears that if the war stops, he may lose the post of Prime Minister.
Netanyahu’s goal is to win over Hamas and strengthen his hold on the country’s power. In such a situation, he carried out this operation against Haniyeh to save his chair.
4- Will Hamas try to take revenge from Israel? Will it kill the hostages for this?
No. Hostages have proved to be Hamas’s biggest weapon in the war against Israel so far. During last year’s ceasefire, Hamas had released many Palestinian prisoners from Israeli jails with the help of hostages. These hostages have been able to prevent Israel from completely occupying Gaza so far.
The families of the hostages in Israel also keep pressuring the Netanyahu government to reach a compromise with Hamas. If Hamas kills the hostages, then it will have no way to force Israel to accept its terms. The Israeli army may further intensify its attacks on Gaza.
5- This attack was carried out in Iran. Can this once again increase the conflict between Iran and Israel?
On April 1, Israel carried out an airstrike near the Iranian embassy in Syria. In this, 13 people including two top army commanders of Iran were killed. After this, Iran threatened to attack Israel to take revenge. Exactly 12 days after this, on April 13, Iran attacked Israel with 300 missiles and drones.
Then the attack was on the Israeli embassy in Syria. But this time its guest Ismail Haniyeh has been killed in Iran’s capital. Iran has called it an Israeli conspiracy. On Wednesday, Iran’s President Masoud Pazshkian had talked about taking revenge from Israel. The country’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei had also said that Israel has killed his guest. Now it is Iran’s duty to take revenge.
According to the Foreign affairs experts, Tensions have increased in the Middle East after Haniyeh’s death. After Haniyeh’s death, Iran’s aim will be to send a message in the region that if anyone attacks their country, they will have to pay the price for it. In such a situation, Iran can take concrete steps to respond to Israel within the next 1 week.
6- Could America be behind the attack? Would it have known about the attack in advance?
No. Israel has carried out many such operations in the past, about which America was not informed. Most of these were carried out by Israel’s intelligence agency Mossad.
According to the Foreign affairs experts,”America itself has been trying to broker a deal between Israel and Hamas for several months. US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and CIA officials have held several meetings with Qatar and Egypt for this.”
Actually, presidential elections are to be held in America this year. According to the data of 2020, more than 44 lakh Muslims live in America. In such a situation, they will be a big vote bank in the upcoming elections. Amidst the increasing attacks of Israel in Gaza, large scale protests have been taking place outside the universities and the White House in America. During this, the opponents have raised the demand of not supporting Israel.
At the same time, at the international level, protests against the attacks on ordinary Palestinians have increased continuously. In such a situation, the agreement between Israel and Hamas is also beneficial for America.
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